Some very good points, Simon, as I would expect. But there are several things you say that cannot be allowed to go unchallenged.
First you say that "the most important part of the judges’ meetings is the talk not the vote" . Then you say "the basic principle of the prize has always been that the judging results (and the featured music/musicians) matter rather more than the judging process." It can't be both, so which is it? It seems a rather casual attitude to a process that results in a hefty cash reward for the winner and which also generates huge amounts of money for certain artists/labels in terms of enhanced sales for shortlisted records.
Secondly, you write that "obviously who the judges happen to be (and the group dynamic that emerges) has a major impact on the list that emerges." Let's look at that again. The judges have only "a major impact" ? This clearly implies that the votes of the judges do not necessarily tally with the shortlist which you subsequently announce and that there are other factors than the views of the judging panel which come into play. What are those factors? We're not allowed to know and it's precisely this lack of transparency that generates suspicions of some secret, hidden agenda behind the prize.
Thirdly, you say "I think the prize works precisely because the judging process is a bit of a mystery." In fact, that is exactly what has damaged the prize's credibility. Talk to most people in the music industry - and probably the general public,too - and they simply take it for granted that the prize is fixed and that there are all sorts of dodgy deals going on. In my experience, that is certainly not true but it is your insistence on "mystery" that encourages such a view. And as for the suggestion that without this mystery there could be "no flexibility, imagination, surprise and, yes, decidedly odd decisions" , there's no logical connection there at all. Of course there could and to claim otherwise is a trick of rhetoric more worthy of a slippery politician than an esteemed professor usually noted for his academic rigour!
FInally, I agree M People "made exhilarating and much loved music" for a time in the early 1990s. It is also true that hindsight is a wonderful thing. But I'm going to use another political analogy. One of the reasons people have no respect for politicians is their refusal to admit that they ever got anything wrong. Mrs Thatcher will probably go to her grave insisting she was right about the poll tax. You seem to have adopted a similar attitude towards M People's Mercury Prize victory. Regardless of the specific merits or demerits of past winners, why not just put your hand up and say that yes, it is an anomaly that neither Damon Albarn nor Thom Yorke - arguably the two most innovative, inventive and significant British rock musicians of the past 15 years - has ever won the prize? I think you'd be pleasantly surprised to discover that such an admission would actually enhance the credibility of the prize and you as its chairman no end.
